Good Orientation as a Prerequisite for Good Decisions

Anyone who hikes in the mountains should be familiar with them: trail markers. However, anyone who thinks they’re merely “signposts” hasn’t yet fully grasped the significance of these symbols. Such markers are regularly found at prominent waypoints. They not only make it easier to orient yourself in the terrain but also allow you to reassess your situation. This naturally includes the option to “turn back” — namely, when the actual destination cannot be reached, or can only be reached with a high degree of uncertainty.

Generally spoken, trail markers are an important part of decision-making in the context of goal-achievement processes. Before judging whether the general direction is still correct, it must first be clear where one actually is. Whether the original goal is still attainable becomes apparent thereafter.

Without such orientation in the real world, even decisions that would otherwise be well-founded quietly lose their legitimacy. In this respect, trail markers serve an important function: Based on the current situation, they provide feedback on how — or whether — the chosen path still leads to the goal.

In management, these can include, for example, key metrics, inconsistencies in key assumptions, personal feedback, or a perspective that hasn’t been considered at all until now. Such “trail markers” help avoid cognitive dissonance and thereby minimize the risk of serious missteps. As strange as it may sound, this only works in an error-friendly environment. After all, those who view unforeseen developments as an invitation to learn make the fewest mistakes in the long run.